Suchergebnisse

Passenger railway transport has a leading position in the Ukrainian passenger transportation services market. According to the current legislation, railway transport is a natural monopoly, since most long-distance passenger transportation is performed by rail. The issue of improving the methods of predicting the long-distance passenger traffic load has been relevant because reliable predictions are the basis for determining the need for material, technical, labor and financial resources in planning the operation and further development of the domestic railway passenger complex.The size of passenger transportation by railway transport is influenced by a variety of factors, the most significant of which are economic and social factors, namely: population, income and tariffs for long-distance rail transport. These factors are the basis of the model of study of the volume of passenger traffic by long-distance rail transport. In order to determine the predictive estimate of passenger traffic volumes on the basis of the given economic -mathematical model it is necessary to make a predictive estimate of the magnitude of the above mentioned factors.The article substantiates the possibility of a complex use of economical mathematical simulation and formalized prediction methods to obtain reliable prediction estimates of passenger load in long-distance railway transportation in the short- and medium-term periods of advance. The determined methodical approaches and proposed practical recommendations give an opportunity to obtain a predictive estimation of the long-distance passenger load using a combination of correlation and regression analysis of socio-economic factors and their predictive extrapolation. This allows improving the quality of planning at the Ukrainian passenger railway complex. A qualitative short-term predictive estimate of long-distance passenger traffic load which takes into account the existing social and economic conditions was obtained. ; Питання удосконалення методів прогнозування обсягів пасажирських перевезень в дальньому сполученні залишається актуальним, оскільки достовірні прогнозні оцінки є підґрунтям для визначення потреби в необхідних ресурсах при плануванні роботи залізничного пасажирського комплексу. В статті обґрунтовані методичні підходи та запропоновані практичні рекомендації, які дають можливість отримати прогнозну оцінку обсягів перевезень пасажирів в дальньому сполученні на основі суміщення методів кореляційно – регресійного аналізу соціально – економічних факторів та їх прогнозної екстраполяції.

Passenger railway transport has a leading position in the Ukrainian passenger transportation services market. According to the current legislation, railway transport is a natural monopoly, since most long-distance passenger transportation is performed by rail. The issue of improving the methods of predicting the long-distance passenger traffic load has been relevant because reliable predictions are the basis for determining the need for material, technical, labor and financial resources in planning the operation and further development of the domestic railway passenger complex.The size of passenger transportation by railway transport is influenced by a variety of factors, the most significant of which are economic and social factors, namely: population, income and tariffs for long-distance rail transport. These factors are the basis of the model of study of the volume of passenger traffic by long-distance rail transport. In order to determine the predictive estimate of passenger traffic volumes on the basis of the given economic -mathematical model it is necessary to make a predictive estimate of the magnitude of the above mentioned factors.The article substantiates the possibility of a complex use of economical mathematical simulation and formalized prediction methods to obtain reliable prediction estimates of passenger load in long-distance railway transportation in the short- and medium-term periods of advance. The determined methodical approaches and proposed practical recommendations give an opportunity to obtain a predictive estimation of the long-distance passenger load using a combination of correlation and regression analysis of socio-economic factors and their predictive extrapolation. This allows improving the quality of planning at the Ukrainian passenger railway complex. A qualitative short-term predictive estimate of long-distance passenger traffic load which takes into account the existing social and economic conditions was obtained. ; Питання удосконалення методів прогнозування обсягів пасажирських перевезень в дальньому сполученні залишається актуальним, оскільки достовірні прогнозні оцінки є підґрунтям для визначення потреби в необхідних ресурсах при плануванні роботи залізничного пасажирського комплексу. В статті обґрунтовані методичні підходи та запропоновані практичні рекомендації, які дають можливість отримати прогнозну оцінку обсягів перевезень пасажирів в дальньому сполученні на основі суміщення методів кореляційно – регресійного аналізу соціально – економічних факторів та їх прогнозної екстраполяції.